Timeline: When severe weather, chance of tornadoes could arrive in Chicago area

Editor's Note: The updated weather story for Thursday, May 15 can be found here. Our original story continues below.

The Chicago area will face all manner of severe weather threats on Thursday, including a chance of damaging winds, large hail and even tornadoes.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, a swath of northeastern Illinois, including McHenry, Lake, DeKalb, Kane, DuPage, and Cook counties, is at an “enhanced” risk of severe weather, the third of five levels of storm potential.

Lake, Porter, and LaPorte counties in northwest Indiana are also at that threat level.

Other parts of the Chicago area are at a “slight” risk of severe weather, the second of the five levels.

All severe weather threats are in play during the potential severe weather outbreak, including a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail, especially in the areas impacted by the “enhanced” risk of severe storms.

A tornado risk is in play for the entire Chicago area Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours, forecasters warn.

Here is a breakdown of what is expected to occur in coming hours.

Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Things should stay relatively quiet overnight, though there is once again a chance of some fog moving over areas close to the shoreline of Lake Michigan, according to forecast models.

A warm front will begin to approach the area early Thursday morning, and a few pop-up showers could occur out in front of that boundary.

Thursday Afternoon/Evening

The main event for severe weather is expected to arrive in either the late afternoon hours or in the early evening, with a cold front plunging down from over Wisconsin and toward the Chicago area, sweeping toward Lake Michigan as the evening moves along.

That front will interact with the steamy hot weather that the area can expect tomorrow, with record-breaking heat possible as temperatures soar into the low-90s, according to forecast models.

As that interaction begins, serious vertical development could occur within thunderstorms, with rotation possible that could ultimately spawn tornadoes, according to forecast models available to the NBC 5 Storm Team.

That explosive development of thunderstorms could occur right around rush hour, so residents and motorists should be on their guard in the event of severe weather, as large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are all possible.

Most of the threat is likely going to be seen in areas north of Interstate 80 and in parts of Northwest Indiana, but other parts of the Chicago area could still see strong-to-severe thunderstorms, according to forecast models.

Thursday Night

A few showers and storms could occur south of Interstate 80 as the cold front finishes passing through the area, but most of the bad weather should likely be cleared out before the Beyonce concert at Chicago’s Soldier Field, according to forecast models.

Still, concertgoers are urged to continue checking the forecast and to have mobile apps ready in the event of severe weather.

Friday Morning

The National Weather Service is warning of some fire danger on Friday due to dry conditions and gusty winds, though Thursday night rain could potentially temper that risk during the daylight hours.

Temperatures are still expected to be quite warm, with readings quickly rising after the sun comes up.

Friday Afternoon/Evening

High temperatures Friday could soar into the mid-to-upper 80s across the area, which will lead to another chance of showers and thunderstorms developing across the area.

The likelihood of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening is lower than Thursday, but most of the Chicago area will still be at a “marginal” risk of severe storms, according to the Storm Prediction Center.  

Saturday

Temperatures will be significantly cooler but still pleasant in the Chicago area, with highs in the low-70s, according to forecast models.

More importantly, dry conditions are expected to persist for most of the weekend, according to the NBC 5 Storm Team.

Sunday

Temperatures will be even cooler on Sunday, with highs only rising into the low-to-mid 60s to wrap up the weekend, though still under clear skies.